Crak'd
College Football · FBS 2022–2025Describe a bet the way you'd say it out loud. Crak'd runs it against 63,083 real player-games and tells you whether it would have made money at standard -110 odds.
How to read this
Breakeven is 52.4%, not 50%. At -110 you risk $110 to win $100, so a strategy has to hit better than 52.4% of the time to make money. A hit rate above that with a real sample size is an edge; below it is a losing bet no matter how good it feels.
Compare against the base rate. Some bets hit often for everyone (RB "under their average" hits more than half the time because one big game inflates an average). The comparison card shows whether your condition actually changes the odds, or just rides the base rate.
Averages are computed entering each game, using only earlier games that season (minimum two), so the backtest never peeks at the result it's grading. "Their season average" as a line mimics how sportsbooks set player props; a fixed number like 229.5 tests one line against every player, which can flatter or punish a strategy.
Data
FBS player game logs for the 2022–2025 seasons, built from ESPN play-by-play published by the open-source sportsdataverse project, aggregated by Crak'd. Spot checks against official season totals land within about 1–2%. QB rushing yards are shown before sack yardage, unlike official NCAA stats. No betting lines or odds are included yet, so every wager is priced at a flat -110. Crak'd is a research tool, not betting advice.